By Steve Sawyer, Secretary General, GWEC

The Eurozone crisis continues to deepen, the Chinese economy is threatening to stall, and the Arab Spring seems to be turning into the winter of discontent; and the war drums are starting to beat in Washington again. We’re having the warmest La Niña year in history, the Greenland and Antarctic icecaps are getting shakier and shakier, and even the chief economist of the IEA is warning governments that they only have five years to get their act together or the window for avoiding more than 2° C of global mean temperature rise will be all but closed.

In this context, it’s hard to make a rosy prediction for wind energy markets in 2012.

From a global perspective, it seems like 2011 will turn out to have been a pretty good year. Installations continue at a frantic rate in China, both India and Canada seem headed for record years, the European market will be pretty steady overall, and we’re starting to see major growth in Latin America, led by Brazil with Mexico coming up strong behind. The volatile US market seems headed for a strong year, which although not up to the 10 GW which was installed in 2009, will be well ahead of last year’s 5 GW market.

The single biggest factor affecting the global market in 2012 and beyond will be determined by the US Congress: if, and for how long, the PTC will be extended. If the Eurozone falls apart, that can’t be good news for the European market, although if the crisis is brought under control, then I think we’ll see strong markets in 2012, especially offshore. The Latin American boom should continue to grow in Brazil and Mexico, and new markets will begin to deliver megawatts in Kenya, South Africa, Mongolia and elsewhere.

The positive resolution of the outstanding issues in relation to the new Japanese feed-in tariff are supposed to get settled in the Spring, and a positive outcome there could presage a growing market in the world’s 3rd largest economy. Our own projections for 2012, from early in 2011, forecast an annual market of about 48 GW. From this vantage point, that may have been a little optimistic, but by the spring of 2012 we may be looking back and snickering at the gloomy uncertainty of the second half of 2011. Let’s hope so.

If you wish, you’re also welcome to peruse my thoughts on the prognostications about the year ahead in Recharge.

You have just read Steve Sawyer’s insider’s view, an excerpt from GWEC’s exclusive members only WindLog. More about GWEC and its role in enhancing global policy development for wind energy at www.gwec.net